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Morning Briefing · Friday, June 12, 2026

Economy Today June 12, 2026: Inflation at 4.3% as Markets Open

By USBaseline · June 12, 2026 · 4 min read · Data: FRED, BLS, U.S. Treasury

Inflation is running at 4.3% year-over-year — still well above the Fed's 2% target. The Federal Funds Rate stays at 3.6% with cuts unlikely before late this year.

Borrowing costs right now

The Federal Funds Rate sits at 3.6%, pushing the Prime Rate to approximately 6.6%. Most small business loans are priced between 6.1% and 8.1% depending on term and creditworthiness. If you're evaluating financing, locking in a fixed rate beats a variable-rate product in this environment — rates may stay higher longer than expected.

Energy & input costs

WTI crude is at $95.00/barrel this morning. Elevated oil prices are flowing through to freight, utilities, and manufacturing costs. Factor higher fuel surcharges into your Q3 budget.

Hiring conditions

The unemployment rate is 4.3%. Labor conditions are gradually easing. Hiring is still competitive but slightly more manageable than six months ago.

What to watch today

The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.55% is the single most important benchmark for business financing. Any move above 4.75% signals tighter credit ahead; a move below 4% would start to ease conditions. Check our live dashboard for real-time updates.

Bottom line: Keep debt minimal, prices competitive, and cash reserves strong. Relief is coming — but not yet.

📊 Key Numbers — June 12, 2026
CPI Inflation (YoY)4.3%
Fed Funds Rate3.6%
Unemployment Rate4.3%
10-Year Treasury4.55%
WTI Crude Oil$95.00/bbl
Retail Sales (MoM)+0.49%

Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), BLS, and U.S. Treasury. For informational purposes only — not financial advice. Privacy Policy