Inflation held at 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026 (CPI: 333.979) — still more than double the Fed's 2% target, and with 9 of 19 Fed officials now projecting at least one rate hike before year-end, the prime rate at 6.75% may move higher, not lower. The big story this week is oil: WTI crude fell nearly 4% to around $70/barrel as the US-Iran peace roadmap opened the Strait of Hormuz — a meaningful input cost relief for businesses in transportation, food service, and manufacturing. Unemployment sits at 4.3% and the labor market is stable, but the combination of sticky inflation and potential rate hikes means borrowing remains expensive. This week's takeaway: the oil drop buys some margin relief on fuel and freight — bank it rather than spending it, because rate hike risk means your cost of capital could rise before year-end.