This Friday, three economic forces are in play: inflation at 4.3%, borrowing costs at 6.1–8.1% for most business loans, and oil at $72/bbl. Each one is pulling on your margins in a different direction.
CPI at 4.3% means prices across the economy are rising at more than double the Fed's target. For businesses, the pressure shows up in supplier invoices, utility bills, and wage negotiations — often before it shows up in your own ability to raise prices. The lag between input cost inflation and output price increases is where margins get squeezed.
With unemployment at 4.2%, the job market still favors workers. Expect wage growth of 4–5% as a baseline for retention, more for skilled roles. The businesses winning on hiring right now are offering flexibility and clear growth paths alongside competitive pay.
Track the 10-year Treasury yield on the USBaseline dashboard. Any sustained move above 4.75% means tighter credit ahead. A break below 4% would be the first real signal that borrowing costs are easing.
Bottom line: Inflation is still the dominant force. Protect margins, fix your borrowing costs, and build cash before the next move.
Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), BLS, and U.S. Treasury. For informational purposes only — not financial advice. Privacy Policy · Disclaimer